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Total unique registrations submitted to USCIS
Enter total registrations (must exceed 85,000).
How many unrelated employers filed for you
Overall Selection Probability
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⚠️ Legal Disclaimer: H1B lottery selection is random. This calculator estimates probability based on USCIS registration data. It is not legal advice. Actual odds depend on exact registration counts announced by USCIS. Consult a licensed immigration attorney for H1B strategy.
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Sources & Methodology
H1B registration and selection data from official USCIS press releases and H1B registration statistics.
USCIS — H1B Electronic Registration Data FY2022-FY2026
Official registration counts and selection statistics. uscis.gov
INA Section 214(g) — H1B Annual Cap Statutory Authority
85,000 annual cap (65,000 regular + 20,000 advanced degree) established by statute. INA sec. 214(g)(1)(A) and (g)(5).
USCIS Final Rule — H1B Electronic Registration (March 2020)
Established the current beneficiary-centric registration system. federalregister.gov
Regular cap selection rate: p = 65,000 / total_registrations
Masters cap: Advanced pool: p_adv = 20,000 / masters_registrations
Masters overall: p_total = p_adv + (1-p_adv) x p_regular
Multiple registrations: p_any = 1 - (1-p)^n
Cap: 85,000 total (65,000 regular + 20,000 advanced degree)
Masters cap: Advanced pool: p_adv = 20,000 / masters_registrations
Masters overall: p_total = p_adv + (1-p_adv) x p_regular
Multiple registrations: p_any = 1 - (1-p)^n
Cap: 85,000 total (65,000 regular + 20,000 advanced degree)
P(selected) = 1 - (1 - p_single)^n
FY2026 example: 470,342 registrations, master’s cap, 2 employers.
p_regular = 65,000 / 470,342 = 13.82%
p_advanced = 20,000 / (470,342 x 0.35) = ~12.2% (est. master’s pool)
p_master_total ≈ 22.8% per registration
With 2 registrations: 1 - (1-0.228)² = 40.3% combined odds
p_regular = 65,000 / 470,342 = 13.82%
p_advanced = 20,000 / (470,342 x 0.35) = ~12.2% (est. master’s pool)
p_master_total ≈ 22.8% per registration
With 2 registrations: 1 - (1-0.228)² = 40.3% combined odds
Last reviewed: April 2026
How Are H1B Lottery Odds Calculated?
The H1B lottery uses a two-stage random selection process. Stage 1: USCIS separates all registrations from advanced degree holders (US master’s or higher) and selects 20,000 from this pool first. Stage 2: All unselected advanced degree registrations are pooled with all regular cap registrations, and 65,000 more are randomly selected. This gives master’s cap applicants two chances.
The key insight: if total registrations are T and approximately 35% hold master’s degrees, the master’s pool is about 0.35T. The advanced degree round selects 20,000/0.35T, then all remaining compete for 65,000/(0.65T + unselected_masters). The combined probability for a master’s holder is measurably higher than for regular cap.
Historical H1B Lottery Data (FY2022–FY2026)
| Fiscal Year | Total Registrations | Cap Slots | Selection Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 470,342 | 85,000 | ~18.1% | FY2026 actual USCIS data |
| FY2025 | 442,000 | 85,000 | ~19.2% | USCIS est. |
| FY2024 | 758,994 | 85,000 | ~14.1% | Record high — 20% later found fraudulent |
| FY2023 | 484,927 | 85,000 | ~22.0% | Post-COVID rebound |
| FY2022 | 308,613 | 85,000 | ~27.5% | COVID-era lower filings |
| FY2021 | 275,000 | 85,000 | ~30.9% | COVID impact |
⚖️ Legal Alternatives if Not Selected: (1) Cap-exempt H1B: Universities, nonprofits, and government research entities are exempt from the cap — apply directly without lottery. (2) O-1 visa: For extraordinary ability. (3) L-1 visa: Intracompany transfer from foreign employer. (4) TN visa: Canadian and Mexican citizens under USMCA. (5) E-3 visa: Australian citizens in specialty occupations. (6) F-1 OPT/STEM OPT: Extends work authorization by up to 3 years.
Frequently Asked Questions
For FY2026 (470,342 registrations, 85,000 slots), the overall selection rate was approximately 18.1%. Master’s cap holders had slightly higher combined probability (~22-24%) due to the two-round selection process.
Two-step process: Step 1: 20,000 slots filled from advanced degree (US master’s+) registrations. Step 2: Remaining unselected advanced degree registrations + all regular cap registrations compete for 65,000 slots. Total cap: 85,000.
85,000 total: 65,000 regular cap + 20,000 advanced degree exemption (US master’s or higher). The cap has been unchanged since 2004. Certain employers (universities, nonprofits) are exempt from the cap entirely.
Yes. Master’s cap applicants enter the 20,000-slot advanced degree pool first. Unselected then enter the 65,000 regular pool. This gives two chances vs one. The improvement is roughly 4-8 percentage points depending on the year.
Multiple unrelated employers may each register for you. With probability p per registration and n registrations, combined odds = 1-(1-p)^n. Two registrations at 18% each gives ~33% combined. USCIS prohibits related entities from filing multiple registrations for the same beneficiary.
FY2027 registration typically opens early March 2026. USCIS announces exact dates. Registration is through myUSCIS. Results announced late March. Selected registrations allow H1B petitions from April 1 through September 30, 2026.
Yes: (1) Have multiple unrelated legitimate employers register for you. (2) Obtain a US master’s degree for the advanced cap. (3) Target cap-exempt employers. (4) Build O-1 extraordinary ability credentials. Each registration must represent a genuine job offer.
Registration is withdrawn. Options: wait for next year’s lottery (March), target cap-exempt employers, pursue O-1/L-1/TN/E-3 alternatives, or extend F-1 OPT/STEM OPT work authorization.
Institutions of higher education, nonprofits affiliated with them, and government research organizations are exempt from the H1B cap. Working for these employers does not require lottery selection. You can also transfer from a cap-exempt to a cap-subject employer without re-entering the lottery.
No. This provides mathematical probability estimates based on historical USCIS data. Actual selection is random. For H1B strategy and petition filing, consult a licensed immigration attorney.
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